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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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