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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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