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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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