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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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