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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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