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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 04 April 16
CAPE INDEX JUMPED 70% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 01 April 16
ASSESSING THE DRY BULK MARKET AT ROCK BOTTOM - CLARKSONS
While the opening months of the year are typically a weak period for the dry bulk market, the downturn so far this year has been severe. Earnings h ...
Friday, 01 April 16
NINE AM - TIME TO GET AN INDONESIAN LANGUAGE VERSION OF YOUR CHARTERPARTIES - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
For several years, Indonesian law (Article 31, Law Number 24 of 2009) has required that memoranda of understanding (" ...
Friday, 01 April 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.6 million shor ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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