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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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