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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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