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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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