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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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