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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Planning Commission, India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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