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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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