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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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