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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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