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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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