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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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