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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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