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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
NEWBUILDINGS' PRICES HAVE STARTED TO COME DOWN - ALLIED | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuildings’ prices have started to come down, as demand has remained subdued for quite some time now. In its latest weekly report, shipbrok ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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