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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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