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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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