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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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