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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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