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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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