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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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