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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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