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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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