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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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