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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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