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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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