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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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