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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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