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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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