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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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