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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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