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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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