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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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