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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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