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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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