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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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