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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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