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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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