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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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