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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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