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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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