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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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