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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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