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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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