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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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