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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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