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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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