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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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