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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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