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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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